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A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."